Just two months ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach admonished him for missing a through-ball. Back then, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or the reason of the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. When the in-form star drilled in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six matches, are somehow only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard proposition to address. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
As per the data, twice all season has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side who have put together ten consecutive victories, they appear weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with rivals and wait for their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
A reversion to average could be the biggest rival the club have to face in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital England player.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
